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Prediction of Earthquakes

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Description: Paper by H.L.Dunegan on the use of high frequency sensors to detect acoustic emissions in order to predict earthquakes.
Prepared for presentation at "6th Conference on AE/MS Activity in Geologic Structures and Materials" Pennsylvania State University June 11-13, 1996. Earthquakes account for more loss of life and property than any other natural phenomena. In spite of this fact, and the fact that we know why and how earthquakes occur, there is a great deal of pessimism from both the scientific community and Government agencies concerning one's ability to accurately predict earthquakes. This pessimism is evidenced by the large amount of funds expended in earthquake preparedness programs compared to the funds available for research concerning earthquake prediction. The primary reason for the lack of an earthquake prediction model is the inability of low frequency surface mounted seismic instrumentation to detect the higher frequencies associated with small fractures that occur prior to a large movement of a fault. The high frequencies associated with these small events are attenuated by the upper mantel and never make it to the surface.
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