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Edo Historical Chess Ratings

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Description: Estimated historical Elo ratings for 19th Century chess players.
system is a novel approach to the retroactive rating of chess players over time. Ratings over the whole period are calculated simultaneously by an iterative method (Bradley-Terry). Similar iterative methods have been used before (by Elo, for example, to initialize the FIDE ratings in 1970), but in a static way, to estimate playing strengths at a particular time. The Edo system uses the simple (but new) idea of treating a single player in different years as separate players, and positing hypothetical drawn self-games between the same player in consecutive years. For example, Staunton-1845 is considered to have played a 30-game match with Staunton-1844 with a resulting score of 15-15. This keeps each player's rating from changing too dramatically in response to every year's performance, which is subject to random variations. Then, an adjustment is made to account for a known underlying distribution of playing strengths of all chess players in general - very high or very low ratings being inherently less likely than average ones. This adjustment decreases the effect of anomalous scores for players with very few game results.
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Creation date: 2006/07/16
Expiry date: 2015/07/16